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Australian Dollar slides quietly

14/08/2018

While most of the markets were focused on the woes of the Turkish Lira (USDTRY) yesterday, and worrying about the possible contagion issues with those most exposed to Turkish risk (Spain, since you ask), one would have expected safe-haven investments such as Swiss Francs (CHF) & Gold (XAUUSD) to have benefited. Interestingly though, this didn’t happen. We saw some US Dollar strength in general, but the most interesting story was the Aussie Dollar (AUDUSD). This has now fallen to its lowest level in 18 months, closing at 0.7297, just 8 months after reaching its high for the same period at 0.8134, a drop of slightly over 10 per cent. On the face of it, there doesn’t appear to be much in the way of support until it gets to the 0.7190/00 level and then it’s anybody’s guess. Ten years ago it had a brief flirtation with 60 cents but came off that pretty sharply. We wouldn’t expect it to re-test those levels and there will be natural buyers on dips, but overall we’d prefer to sell rallies than buy dips. One of the things to remember with AUDUSD is that despite being a Major currency, albeit one very much in the Second XI, is that it is not as liquid as one might expect, particularly during the European & NY markets. Keep your stops updated as there may be fireworks ahead.

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