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Dollar flexes its muscles as market looks to Non Farm Payrolls

05/10/2018

Most of the recent moves we have seen have come off the back of US dollar strength, with the Australian & New Zealand dollars (AUDNZD, NZDUSD) and Japanese Yen (USDJPY) among the main casualties. The dollar strength is itself fuelled by the strong US stock market performances across the various indices, which is quite an endorsement for the embattled U.S. President given the relentless negative media campaigns against him. The key focus remains on the release of today’s Non-Farm Payroll data for September, with the key number expected to come in at +180k. The market will be positioned broadly long, so any upset in the expectations is likely to provoke a larger reaction than will be seen if the figures are better than expected. We expect the market to take good numbers in its stride, as this is pretty much what most people are expecting and how they are positioned will reflect this. As ever, there will be some jockeying around but the market is likely to reduce some risk ahead of the weekend, although talk that the circus surrounding the appointment of Judge Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court will finally wind up and move on with a confirmation vote over the weekend will strengthen the President’s hand.

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