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Fed meeting – rate rise expected, day traders ascendant

20/03/2018

With the 2 day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) starting today, the market has convinced itself that at the end of it, US interest rates will be raised 25 basis points (0.25%). The market has already factored this in to asset prices and so there should be no noticeable reaction. However, the picture remains anything but clear for the US currency, and its direction is likely to be ultimately decided by factors external to the US. Sterling has room to appreciate against the dollar, so too has the Japanese Yen. The fate of the Euro is less clear but the loss of the UK cash-cow can only be damaging as Germany continues to do the heavy lifting for most of the Eurozone with little help from some of its basket-case Southern European neighbours. The Canadian dollar is also looking vulnerable and its best days must surely now be behind it. While the outlook remains confused, day traders will have their day in the sun until a new trend emerges.

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