Gold (XAUUSD) had a disappointing week last week, and has been unable to reverse that trend over several days this week. The precious metal made fairly steady progress through most of March, rallying from $1281 to $1318. It wasn't the most graceful of rallies, but through the sheer determination and hard work of Gold bulls it managed to climb a little. However, over the space of 3 days it gave up almost everything it had made, falling to a shade under $1287. The subsequent period of consolidation has had an inherently negative feel to it, and today it has again failed to show any signs of life, and is currently trading at $1283. It hasn't fallen below $1275 since it rallied through there in late December, but the market feels like it is setting the stage for a test. Below that level there will be Stop Losses, both to hedge risk and those momentum traders who will want to establish new short positions if/when it breaks. We feel a break will bring us down to $1250 quite quickly, and that any subsequent rally will be seen as nothing more than an opportunity to sell at better levels.