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Kiwi - is the rally sustainable ?

10/04/2019

Kiwi (NZDUSD) is making a slow but steady recovery after last week’s strong rebuff from the 0.6800 level, and is in a mini upchannel whose rising base is currently just under 0.6740. We’ve been here before and this is simply a reaction to last week’s surprise. It may well continue to make slow progress ratcheting up, but it simply underlines the likelihood that the next decent move will be another decline. Markets sometimes have a tendency to re-visit previous levels, but we feel that any rally here is just an opportunity to establish shorts at a better price.  Selling pressure feels stronger than buying pressure, and sellers are just biding their time to see where this weak rally takes us before giving the market another clout. This rise feels especially fragile, and has taken four days to put 40 cents of value back in the Kiwi. it’s seems like it’s only a matter of time before it gets another reality check, and that value is likely to be lost in a fraction of the time it took to gain.

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