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Non Farm Payroll data due 12:30 GMT

03/05/2019

The Non-Farm Payroll data (NFP)released by the US Department of Labor presents the number of new jobs created during the previous month, in all non-agricultural business, and is arguably the single most important global economic dataset. The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile, due to its obvious relationship to economic policy handed down by the Federal Reserve. Normally, (but not always) released on the first working Friday of the month the headline number is almost always subject to revision the following month as the picture becomes more clear. It’s important to take this into account as these reviews can also be a trigger for forex volatility. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish), although previous months reviews and the unemployment rate are as relevant as the headline figure, and therefore the reaction depends on how the market assesses them all. Today’s figure is scheduled for 12:30 GMT and is expected to show that the US economy added 185K new jobs during the month of April a slight reduction on  the previous month's headline figure of +196K. Unemployment is expected to remain at 3.8% but nowadays wage growth data will also be under scrutiny. We expect an hourly earnings increase of 0.3% m/m, with an annualised figure of 3.4%.

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