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Non-Farm Payrolls - why it's important

05/04/2019

Non-Farm payrolls, usually released by the US Department of Labor on the first Fridays of the month, is a measure of the number of new jobs created during the previous month in the commercial, excluding agricultural business. Agricultural jobs are often transient and casual in nature, and so are not a good indicator of employment. Local Government jobs are also excluded. The monthly changes in payrolls can show wide deviations, due to the impact of Central Bank (Fed) policy decisions. The data is reviewed during the month and is subject to revision. So today, (April 5th), we will see both the early figures for March, as well as a more accurate figure for February. The number is really a measure of economic growth and high numbers suggest a more stimulated economy than low ones - but significant revisions to the previous month can add a bit of spice to the mixture. We are expecting a figure of around +180k. February's numbers were poor at +20k so traders will be looking at the revised number to see if it still holds up. Average Hourly Earnings will also be scrutinised for early signs of wage inflation.

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