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Rand to strengthen into new year and beyond

13/12/2018

It has been interesting to note the progress of one of the less fashionable pairs, the USDZAR. This has had a bit of a lively summer, firstly ranging between 14.20 & 15.30 on August 13th, then going on to reach a chart high of 15.6950 on September 5th. Its behaviour since then has still been quite volatile, but what we can see on the daily charts is a repeating pattern of decline, a rally that fails to reach the previous high, followed by another decline. This has happened 5 times since the September high was established, and it would seem reasonable to expect this trend to continue. We feel selling rallies is a safer strategy than buying dips, which should only be seen as profit-taking opportunities. In the medium term, and in the absence of any unforeseen external stimuli, we’d expect to re-visit the July lows of 13.07, and then review the situation.

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