S&P approaches critical level
The S&P500 (#SP500) has been in a steady uptrend since the beginning of the year when it opened at 2507. It’s now trading around 2811 and is right up against a multi-month resistance line that it broke through in October last year. We’ve been here a few times since then, and each time it has been knocked back pretty smartly. The market does have a slightly different feel to it this time, but it’s not a quality that invites confidence. What we normally see in these circumstances is the market taking a little break and trying to build up the courage to try again. We’d expect some Stop Loss orders above2825, some placed by people selling into the rally and some by traders hoping to ride a wave upwards with the momentum. Another failure at this point wouldn’t be a disaster, it would likely just provide a bit of breathing space for S&P bulls to get acclimatised to these levels before pushing on once more. We think a breach is likely eventually, but the danger is in assuming that once breached it will immediately have enough momentum to continue on to test the psychologically important 3000 level. We see progress as steady but do not see any signs that this is ready to run away just yet.