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Sterling jumps on ECJ Brexit advice

04/12/2018

Once again Sterling is the big mover in the markets as the Advocate General for the European Court of Justice (ECJ) issued his opinion on whether the UK can legally ‘cancel’ Brexit without requiring the agreement of the other member states. Of course, whether it could, or whether it will are two entirely different matters. Not only is the Advocate General’s advice non-binding, and bearing in mind the only UK political party standing on a manifesto of reversing Brexit polled less than 8% at the last election, it would be quite rare for any political party to commit suicide in such a spectacular fashion. This rally is nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction by holders of short positions. To be sure, we’d expect Sterling to rally as and when the uncertainty around the thorny issue of Brexit evaporates, but this is not the event that will clear the fog. We’d continue to sell into rallies such as this.

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