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The week ahead 01.10.2018

01/10/2018

The week ahead will be dominated by the Non-Farm Payroll data for September that will be released Friday at 08:30am NY time, where employment and average hourly earnings are both expected to show gains.  The market is expecting a jobs gain of 180k - anything less than that will be construed as disappointing and would lead to a lively session for the dollar. There are other economic indicators also out this week but none of them are particularly significant, with the main driver of the market still being political issues, rather than economic ones. Yesterday’s announcement regarding the New NAFTA, which has been renamed the ‘United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement”, (USMCA) will get the US markets off to a positive start. Getting bottom billing in this tripartite agreement will doubtless be hailed as an achievement by Canada’s Prime Minister, but in reality few concessions have been made by the US, who have undoubtedly used their position of strength to their advantage in forging a new, fairer trading environment.

Sterling (GBPUSD) could be in for an interesting week as the ruling Conservative Party hold their annual conference, and the Party will get the chance to get out of their cloistered seclusion and hear from their actual members. It’s likely to be quite a hostile atmosphere for the UK Prime Minister, whose principles rotate at a rate that renders them invisible to the human eye, with poll figures showing that 80% of members want her gone. One can only assume that the margin of error in this poll is wider than usual. Brexit will be the dominant issue here, with the attendant risk that someone will make an ‘off-message’ statement that disrupts the markets.

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