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The week ahead 04.02.2019

02/02/2019

This week kicks off with minor releases from Australia & the UK, with Building Approvals & Construction CPI respectively. Tuesday sees the start of the Chinese New Year (Year of the Pig for anyone interested), and so the Chinese markets are expected to be quiet, as their liquidity is withdrawn. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are expected to make their usual interest rate announcement at 03:30 (GMT), not that any change is expected of course, but as usual any accompanying statement will be scrutinised for clues in any changes to official thinking. Both the the UK & Eurozone release largely irrelevant Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, although we'd expect no real surprises here. We feel the EU is heading towards a minor recession but we doubt that any truly revelatory PMI figures would escape censorship anyway. The US also gets in on the PMI party with its own (Non-Manufacturing) dataset but again we are not expecting this to set the world alight. Wednesday brings us the annual State of the Union (SOTU) address from the US President which has been delayed by the machinations of the opposition Democrats. Whilst this usually includes a review of the fiscal health of the US we'd expect the President to indulge in both a little cherry-picking here as well as taking the chance to criticise any initiative from the previous incumbent. Thursday brings us the UK interest rate decision at 12:00 and a chance to catch up on a nap as nothing revelatory will come here either. Friday too is something of a write-off data wise with just Canadian Unemployment data at 13:30, a figure which will be of marginal interest except to those unfortunates who form part of the statistics.

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