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The week ahead 10.09.2018

10/09/2018

Today sees the release of UK monthly GDP (due at 0830 GMT), expected to arrive at 0.3% versus 0.1% previous while the manufacturing numbers are seen declining for the July holiday period. There should be better news for Sterling as the EU looks likely to offer some sort of Brexit deal. The problem the UK has is that they have an extremely weak Prime Minister who tends to cave in at the first opportunity that presents itself, and so will undoubtedly eagerly seize any concession that the EU may appear to make, and try and convince the electorate that it’s a benefit to the UK (spoiler – it won’t be and her days are still numbered).

Tomorrow sees Chinese lending figures released, which will undoubtedly be carefully scrutinised after last weeks CPI & PPI data for signs of inflation, as well as any signs of an olive branch being extended to President Trump over the imposition of tariffs to tip the scales slightly on international trade between the two.

Finally, the Turkish Lira (USDTRY, EURTRY) had a pretty torrid time of it and this will make investors in emerging markets even more defensive as fear of contagion spreads.

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