The week ahead 10.12.2018


A couple of UK figures start the week with Industrial Production today followed by UK Earnings tomorrow. However the key event for Sterling (and possibly the Euro) will come on Tuesday evening as the UK Parliament vote on whether to back the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal. There has been a noticeable charm offensive on social media attempting to drum up support, but the responses have been universally savage, and it is now reported that 55% of Mrs May’s constituency would prefer her to vote against her own deal. The chances of the Bill successfully passing through Parliament in its current form are now remote. If the EU do not make a concession that the PM can portray as a Win she is doomed. The UK will be facing the probability of either a leadership election, or failing that, a General Election, and a radically altered political landscape as the likely outcome.

After all this excitement Wednesday will only be able to offer us US CPI, and Thursday follows up with the eternal anti-climax that is the ECB Interest Rate Decision, and the Monetary Policy Assessment from the Swiss National Bank. The latter will be taken with a pinch of salt as the Swiss have a certain amount of prior form with regards to saying one thing and doing another. We close the week out with the US Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures at 13:30 GMT and by the time US PMI’s are released at 14:45 no-one will have any interest left.

Update: The UK's Prime Minister looks set to postponeTuesday's scheduled vote on the proposed Brexit agreement in order to delay the inevitable humiliation of defeat.

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