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The week ahead 11.02.2019

11/02/2019

Two big events to watch out for this week, with the UK Parliamentary vote on Brexit in the diary for Valentines Day, although there will be very little love lost between the two sides, and before that, the opening of US/China trade talks as indicated in last week’s State of the Union address. Today sees UK GDP and Industrial & Manufacturing Production figures out, all of which have so far managed to disappoint. However, Sterling is all about the path to Brexit and whether the Government will actually deliver what the people voted for, or some appalling half-in, half-out fudge which will alienate 95% of the voters (as opposed to around half), and signal the death knell of the UK Party system. There is nothing significant in the way of economic data out Tuesday, although the Reserve Bank of new Zealand  (RBNZ) will announce their rate decision at 20:00 GMT to the profound excitement of absolutely no-one. Wednesday sees a little more action in the form of UK & US CPI data at 09:30 GMT and 13:30 GMT respectively. Thursday brings us Eurozone GDP at 07:00 GMT, and we expect these to add further concern to the prospects of the EU. US Retail Sales are up at 13:30 but we don’t anticipate too many surprises here. Friday eases the tension of what could be a lively week with Chinese CPI at 01:30 GMT and UK Retail Sales at 09:30. There is some regional data out of Michigan at 15:00 but by that stage only the most devoted traders will be looking for diamonds in that data.

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