The week ahead 17.09.2018


Not too much in the way of significant news out this week until Wednesday, when the Bank of Japan makes its usual interest rate decision where the only surprise would be if they changed it.  Later in the day US CPI & RPI figures will be announced and are expected to show a slight rise.  The EU heads of state will begin a 3 day informal meeting in Salzburg on Wednesday hosted by Sebastian Kurz, the current occupier of the revolving chair that is the President of the European Council. Main topics are likely to be internal security against the threats of terrorism on the EU mainland, although managing the dissent from Hungary and the Brexit conundrum will also be discussed. Obviously a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is to be avoided, although it is rarely made clear in the media that the ’deal’ referred to is not a Trade deal but merely a bill for withdrawal. It is difficult to see quite why the UK Prime Minister has any valuation that is not considerably lower than the valuation of M. Barnier. This is, after all, how negotiations are supposed to work. Any positive noises are likely to boost Sterling (GBPUSD) more than the Euro.

Thursday sees UK Housing starts and Retail Sales data, with the latter expected to show a decline, with some significant UK retailers struggling in recent weeks. US Jobless data will be the main focus in the States, whilst we end the week on Friday with a ton of inflation data out of Canada.

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