The week ahead 18.02.2019


This week starts off relatively quietly due to the US holiday (President’s Day), with US Equity markets closed all day. On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishes the minutes (00:30 GMT) of its recent meeting, and as usual the notes will be scrutinised for cryptic clues. The UK will release Average Earnings and Unemployment data at 09:30. Rounding off the day, the figures on the Japanese Trade Balance are due at the curiously odd time of 23:50 GMT, but are not expected to have a noticeable impact. Wednesday  brings us two opposites – Australian Wage Price Index at 00:30 which can be safely ignored, and the FOMC minutes at 19:00, which can’t.  Thursday kicks off with the last of this week’s Australian data releases with Employment data out at 01:30, expected to show a small rise in Employment,  while the core Unemployed figure should be stable around 5%. EU Purchasing Manager Indices are up at 09:30 but are expected largely unchanged. We feel that there is scope for disappointment here, and disappointing numbers will add pressure to the Euro. We have a 90 minute window of interesting US data coming out between 13:30 and 15:00 GMT with Durable Goods, US PMI’s (14:45) and finishing off with Existing Home Sales. We ease into the weekend on Friday with minor CPI data out of Japan at 01:30 and potentially more interestingly, Eurozone CPI at 10:00. Again, we feel that the EU figures are masking a situation that is slightly more negative than it could be, and poor figures here will cause a wider reassessment of Euro value. Canada brings up the rearguard at 13:30 with Retail Sales but by that time very few people will care.

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