The week ahead 18.03.2019


Japan opened the markets right on opening time with their trade data being published at midnight. This was the only scheduled release for today, and it is notable that imports fell 1.2%, much more than the 0.9% anticipated by economists. This follows the 8.4 percent year-on-year drop in January, marking a third straight month of decline in what must surely be considered a worrying factor in Tokyo. The RBA kick off Tuesday at 00:30GMT with the usual minutes of their most recent meeting, which are not likely to provide much in the way of controversy. Australian House Price data is also due out at the same time but the slight predicted fall is unlikely to impact the currency. UK Average earnings data is released at 09:30 but only a figure a long way from the expected 3.4% growth will be significant.  Eurozone Economic Sentiment follows at 10:00, and here again things are starting to look rather discouraging. There is a possibility of yet another Brexit vote in the UK Parliament on Tuesday, where the politicians seem to be determined to oppose the wishes of their electors. It is not likely to end well for the UK Party system generally. Finally, the Bank of Japan publish their minutes which will, as usual, be put under the microscope for clues to any possible change of sentiment. Wednesday brings us UK Price Index data at 09:30 with the US Fed interest rate decision at 18:00 where no change is expected to the current policy is expected. Thursday is a busy day in Europe with the full day meeting of the European Council along with a Swiss National Bank (SNB) decision on interest rates at 08:30 where, once again, no change is expected. The Swiss do have previous form for being quite contrary though, so we’ll be paying attention to this one. UK Retail Sales are published at 09:30 and the Bank of England interest rate decision on which we definitely do not see any changes. The day finishes quite late with Japanese CPI at 23:30. Friday starts off with Eurozone PMI data for Service & Manufacturing sectors, followed by the same survey results from the US at 13:45, interrupted only briefly by Canadian CPI at 12:30, where a small decline is anticipated.

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