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The week ahead 20.05.2019

19/05/2019

Nothing too exciting to get your teeth into with regards to data releases on Monday, but Chairman of the US Federal Reserve is speaking on Monday evening at the Atlanta Fed’s annual conference on Amelia Island, Florida, which may throw up something to tempt the markets. Tuesday brings forth the AUD Monetary Policy Meeting minutes at 01:30, which will be closely watched for direction after leaving the policy rate unchanged ahead of the Federal elections. The Bank of England Governor (Carney) is testifying  on both inflation and monetary outlooks before the Parliament Treasury Committee, and the day rounds off with New Zealand retail sales out at 22:45. Wednesday starts at 08:30 GMT with UK CPI with a slight rise indicated. Canadian Retail Sales are up next at 12:30 and the FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled for release at 18:00 GMT. Thursday brings us the German GDP figures at 06:00 GMT and are expected to remain slightly depressed. 08:00 brings us the headline figure of the day, the German IFO business confidence level reports, which will be closely studied after last month’s perhaps not so surprising fall. Eurozone services and manufacturing PMI are also due at 08:00 and we are slightly concerned that these will also demonstrate a mild disappointment. The European Elections also start polling Thursday and this is expected to be a big day for the UK, with the Brexit Party, formed because 3 years after the vote the UK is no further out of the EU than it was before, is expected to do well, picking up supporters from those who are in favour of democracy, (even when it doesn’t suit them), as well as the slightly firmer support from those who see the future of the UK outside the EU. The governing Tories are expected to poll 5th, and even the Labour opposition is expecting to lose considerable voting traction. This is one of the reasons we like Sterling in the medium term. Friday starts the day off relatively modestly with UK Retail Sales at 08:30 with US Durable Goods following on at 12:30, but the headline numbers may be slightly impacted by Boeing deliveries with the woes around the 737 Max putting off buyers.

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