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The week ahead 21.01.2019

21/01/2019

This weeks round of data releases started at 02:00 today with Chinese GDP which came in at 1.5% for Q4, bringing the annual figure to 6.6% for 2018. Tomorrow is the start of the Davos World Economic Forum, a 4 day event that concludes on Friday. There is usually an opportunity for someone to make an unguarded or provocatively reported remark that causes ripples so caution is advised. We also have the UK Average Earnings Index, but this will be overshadowed by the ongoing efforts of the UK Government to trip over their own feet in delivering Brexit. Wednesday brings us the interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan. Since this is unlikely to change (as usual), this is not likely to upset the apple cart. Thursday brings us the ECB Monetary Policy Statement and its attendant press conference. Again, we do not expect much in the way of change here with regard to the rates, though the statement will, as usual, be carefully scrutinised for signs of a change in tone. Given the current Eurozone growth outlook we’d expect a slightly more cautious tone. Friday ends with the winding-up from Davos and the release of the German Business Sentiment Index. Here again, we’d expect this to be slightly more negative than previously, given the “No Deal” Brexit option is now the legal default if a more conciliatory agreement can’t be obtained from Brussels, a scenario that will give the Germans pause for thought indeed.

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