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The week ahead 25.03.2019

25/03/2019

Japan kicked off the week’s releases with the Industry Activity Index at 04:30 (GMT) which came in at a disappointing -0.2%, followed by Business Climate figures out of Germany at 09:00, which came in at a somewhat surprising 99.6%, the first rise in six months.  The New Zealand Trade Balance data comes later on tonight at 21:45 where a decline is also expected. Tuesday brings us the prospect of a relatively quiet day with US Housing Starts at 12:30 and Consumer Confidence following at 14:00. Wednesday continues the trend of slow data with a Kiwi interest rate decision at 01:00 and the Canadian trade balance at 12:30. Thursday delivers some Eurozone Economic Confidence data at 10:00 and while this doesn't usually set pulses racing, it is worth a closer look as any negative figures will just feed nervousness over European economic performance. Friday could be an interesting day, as it is the day on which the UK is supposed to sever ties with the EU. However, it now looks increasingly likely that this won’t actually happen due to the astonishing under-performance of the ruling Conservative Party.  The UK Parliament is scheduled to hold another ‘meaningful vote” on what appears to be exactly the same agreement that has already been rejected twice. The default legal position is that the UK exits without a deal, a scenario that is described by pro-EU commentators as “catastrophic” and by voters as “what they voted for”. In fact, it would be catastrophic only to the EU, where the UK’s financial contribution has always been more welcome than their political one. UK GDP is published at 09:00 and is unlikely to help Europhiles. US Personal spending is released at 12:30 with the Chicago PMI at 13:45.

Finally, a reminder that European clocks are reset to Summer Time this weekend and from next week all data releases are back to their more usual slots.

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