UK Retail sales provide surprise
Today’s UK Retail Sales figure gave Sterling a little bit of breathing space today, confounding the Bears with a rise of 0.7%, against a widely-expected figure of 0.2%. However, while these figures are beloved of Economists and other longer-term financial modellers, does it really have a significant impact on actual FX trading ? In a word, no. There will be some positional adjustments, some trailing stops triggered, but a reversal of the current trend is far from likely. Indeed, it’d be surprising if anyone was still factoring into their trading decisions by this afternoon. The truth is, the reasons to sell Sterling, most of which hinge around the uncertainty of just who is leading the Government, and more importantly, who will lead it into the final Brexit, and indeed what form that takes, remain as strong as ever. It is only once that doubt is removed that Sterling can be properly re-assessed. We remain bearish.